Geopolitics provide wakeup call on digital resilience and autonomy

Against that background, we asked the SIDN Panel how the current geopolitical situation, particularly the conflict in the Middle East, is affecting their online activities and business plans. Has there been an impact, and how is that influencing their investment in online activities? A total of 110 panel members responded.

Minority feeling an impact

Most respondents say that the geopolitical situation is having little direct effect on their businesses. Nearly half report no impact, while a third say the impact has been small. Those that have felt an impact mostly say it’s been negative, with effects such as higher costs, market uncertainty and supply-chain disruption. Only a handful of respondents report positive effects.

Question: How big an impact is the conflict in the Middle East currently having on your business?

Online investment largely unchanged

As things stand, therefore, many businesspeople think that the geopolitical situation doesn’t warrant them changing their online plans. A clear majority will press ahead with their internet-based activities as planned. Only a small minority think that geopolitics will lead to them doing more online, and an even smaller number anticipate doing less. Even amongst respondents who have experienced an impact, we saw no clear intention to either scale up or scale back their online activities. The percentage actively opting to scale up is small. In that respect, the current situation differs from previous external shocks, such as the coronavirus pandemic, which significantly accelerated digitisation.

Question: Is the conflict in the Middle East causing your business to change its online activity plans?

No shift from physical to online activities

Another finding of the survey is that people in the business community don’t see the current geopolitical uncertainty as a reason for shifting from physical to online trading. There is no support for the idea that online trading is a safer bet in uncertain times. Most respondents are neutral on that score, or see physical trading as safer. Again, it seems that, in terms of its impact, the current situation differs from previous disruptions.

Cautious attitude

While our survey found no evidence of a significant downturn in investment in online activities, some respondents are cautious about the long-term prospects. A number of panel members report looking more critically at costs and returns across the board, not only where online activities were concerned. On the other hand, some of those working in the ICT sector actually see the situation creating opportunities by fuelling demand for cybersecurity, European digital services and so forth.

“Our day-to-day operations haven’t been affected. The situation is driving up costs and uncertainty, but it’s not impacting our online strategy.”

Panel member from the business community

Increased focus on cybersecurity

The field where geopolitics do have a clear impact is cybersecurity. A majority of respondents say that the current situation brings increased cyber-risk, which they’re actively seeking to mitigate. Cybersecurity now commands more of our panellists’ attention. While that isn’t always translated directly into course changes, it is reflected in planning and in the influence of risk management on decision-making.

“The geopolitical situation has mainly led to an increased focus on cybersecurity. We get more questions about the design of our infrastructure and the associated risks.”

B2B service provider

Digital autonomy viewed as important

Another subject commanding our respondents’ attention is digital autonomy. Many say that autonomy has become more important to their organisations. From their additional comments, it’s clear that the people concerned about this topic are not only making plans to increase digital autonomy, but also taking practical action. Businesses are looking to reduce dependence on foreign tech companies and exploring the scope for moving their data and technical infrastructures to Dutch and other European service providers. That points to a broader re-evaluation of digital dependences. The geopolitical situation is increasing the sense of urgency and prompting people to take action.

“We’re putting more emphasis on finding European solutions. Reducing dependency on US companies has become an important consideration for us.”

Panel member from the business community

Digital resilience the priority for 2026

Our findings show that the current geopolitical situation is mainly influencing businesses’ risk management and operating principles. Their approach to investment in online activities remains fundamentally unchanged, but there’s increased awareness of vulnerabilities. For 2026, therefore, the focus is shifting to risk management. Topics such as cybersecurity, digital autonomy and dependency on international tech companies are all receiving more attention.

Question: What’s the main impact of the geopolitical situation on your online activities?

About the SIDN Panel

The findings reported here are based on input from the SIDN Panel: a group of 700 businesspeople and other internet users who are periodically invited to answer questions about internet-related developments and the digital economy. The panel is made up of entrepreneurs, IT specialists and other people with an interest in the Dutch internet domain. By regularly consulting the panel, we’re able to stay abreast of how developments are perceived and what trends are taking shape. If you’re interested in taking part in future surveys, you can apply to join the SIDN Panel at sidn.nl.