Outlook for 2026: SIDN Panel sees opportunities, but worries about AI and digital autonomy
42 per cent of respondents expect more online trade, only 3 per cent expect less
How do Dutch entrepreneurs and professionals expect online business to go in 2026? We asked the SIDN Panel last month, and got 103 responses. The results paint a nuanced picture: there’s optimism about the opportunities offered by new technology, but people are also worried about dependency on Big Tech, cybersecurity and how AI might impact their earnings models.
More online trade in 2026
Of our respondents, 42 per cent are expecting to do more business online in 2026, while only 3 per cent envisage a decline. Self-employed service providers and webshop proprietors are particularly positive about the outlook. Investment in websites and online marketing is also expected to stay the same or increase. SEO, social media and e-mail marketing are seen as the main ways of maintaining an online profile. However, people increasingly think that SEO isn’t all about the big search engines, but also about visibility in AI tools.
“We’re redesigning our website so that AI sees it as relevant for compiling answers.” – independent online service provider
Figure 1: Amount of online trade expected in the next 12 months (n=103).
AI: an opportunity and a threat
Many respondents flagged up artificial intelligence (AI) as the most significant current trend: 56 per cent of the group are adapting their online strategies to suit AI. The technology is seen as a tool for boosting efficiency, generating content and responding more promptly to customer enquiries. At the same time, people worry about AI making their services redundant or pointing users away from their websites.
“Fewer people need my services, because they can use AI to build their own websites.” – web development service provider
“AI opens the way for providing better services more quickly.” – independent consultant
Figure 2: Impact of AI on online business strategy (n=90).
Digital autonomy and geopolitics
One notable trend is the desire for less dependence on US Big Tech. Respondents believe that digital autonomy and European cloud solutions are strategically important. Some see the situation as an opportunity to build a distinctive identity, others as a complex challenge that implies more work.
“Digital autonomy is something that can be used to build customer loyalty, but it has workload implications as well.” – independent IT service provider
“Google, Microsoft and Amazon are direct threats to my customers and their customers.” – civil servant
Legislation and security
Our panel members have mixed views on the current wave of European legislation, such as the Digital Services Act and NIS2. Some think the new rules are an opportunity to increase transparency and trust, but others worry about the administrative burden. Cybersecurity was mentioned by a lot of people, with DDoS attacks, ransomware and data breaches being the main concerns.
“Security, security and especially security. State-sponsored hackers are undermining trust in online business.” – respondent in direct employment
Conclusion
SIDN Panel members believe that the online trading environment will offer plenty of opportunities in 2026, while also presenting significant threats. AI, digital autonomy and legislation are the dominant themes.
Join the SIDN Panel!
As the organisation behind the .nl domain, we like to hear what internet users, registrants and the (Dutch) business community thinks about the internet and its use, and about topics such as security, privacy and domain names. Would you be interested in sharing your views with us, maybe anonymously? Join the SIDN Panel!
